New IITM-Pune study projects India's vegetation carbon biomass to rise 35-97% by 2100, with arid-zone forests leading the surge.
IITM-पुणे के नए अध्ययन के अनुसार भारत का वनस्पति कार्बन बायोमास 2100 तक 35-97% बढ़ेगा; शुष्क क्षेत्रों के वनों में सर्वाधिक वृद्धि।
Why in News
A new study from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM-Pune) projects India's vegetation carbon biomass to rise 35% under low-emissions scenarios and up to 97% under high-emissions scenarios by 2100, driven by elevated atmospheric CO₂ and rainfall variability. The study places over 60% of this growth in India's arid and semi-arid margins (Rajasthan, Gujarat). The projection lands alongside the India State of Forest Report 2023 showing forest carbon stock risen from 6.94 billion tonnes (2013) to 7.29 billion tonnes (2023), and NDC updates targeting a 3.5-4.0 billion-tonne CO₂-equivalent carbon sink by 2035.
At a Glance
- Study
- IITM-Pune projection on India's vegetation carbon biomass to 2100
- Projected biomass increase
- 35% (low-emissions) to 97% (high-emissions) by 2100
- Region of peak growth
- arid and semi-arid margins — Rajasthan, Gujarat — over 60% increase
- Primary drivers
- elevated atmospheric CO₂ (aids photosynthesis) and rainfall variability
- Forest carbon stock 2013
- 6.94 billion tonnes
- Forest carbon stock 2023
- 7.29 billion tonnes (per India State of Forest Report 2023)
- Forest + tree cover 2023
- 25.17% of geographical area (up from 24.62% in 2021 assessment)
- NDC target (2031-35)
- 3.5-4.0 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent additional carbon sink through forest and tree cover, above 2005 levels
- Bonn Challenge commitment
- Restore 26 million hectares of degraded land
A new IITM-Pune study projects India's vegetation carbon biomass to increase by 35-97% by 2100, with over 60% of the growth concentrated in arid and semi-arid regions (Rajasthan, Gujarat). India's forest carbon stock has already risen from 6.94 billion tonnes in 2013 to 7.29 billion tonnes in 2023 per the India State of Forest Report, and forest + tree cover is now at 25.17% of geographical area. Under updated NDCs, India targets an additional carbon sink of 3.5-4.0 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent through forest and tree cover by 2035, relative to 2005 levels. Major operating schemes are the Green India Mission (GIM), National Afforestation Programme (NAP), CAMPA, Trees Outside Forests in India (TOFI), the Bonn Challenge commitment, the Sub-Mission for Agroforestry, the Green Credit Programme, and Nagar Van Yojana.
IITM-पुणे के नए अध्ययन के अनुसार भारत का वनस्पति कार्बन बायोमास 2100 तक 35-97% बढ़ेगा; इसका 60% से अधिक भाग राजस्थान एवं गुजरात के शुष्क और अर्ध-शुष्क क्षेत्रों में केंद्रित होगा। भारत का वन कार्बन भंडार 2013 में 6.94 अरब टन से बढ़कर 2023 में 7.29 अरब टन हो गया है तथा वन एवं वृक्ष आवरण भौगोलिक क्षेत्र का 25.17% है। अद्यतन NDC के अनुसार भारत 2031-35 तक 3.5-4.0 अरब टन CO₂-समतुल्य अतिरिक्त कार्बन सिंक (2005 स्तर से) का लक्ष्य रखता है।
- 2005Baseline yearआधार वर्ष
- 20136.94 Bn T stock6.94 अरब टन भंडार
- 20237.29 Bn T stock7.29 अरब टन भंडार
- 2031-353.5-4 Bn T target3.5-4 अरब टन लक्ष्यNDC additional sink· NDC अतिरिक्त सिंक
Static GK
- •NDC — Nationally Determined Contributions: Country commitments under the Paris Agreement (2015); India updated NDCs at COP26 Glasgow (2021) with 2070 net-zero target
- •India State of Forest Report: Biennial publication of Forest Survey of India (FSI), Dehradun; under Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change
- •Green India Mission (GIM): One of the 8 missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC); targets 5 Mha additional cover + 5 Mha quality improvement
- •CAMPA: Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority — uses funds from forest-land diversion for compensatory afforestation
- •Bonn Challenge: Global commitment launched 2011 to restore degraded land; India committed 26 million hectares restoration
- •Carbon sequestration: Process by which atmospheric CO₂ is captured and stored in biomass (trees) and soils
- •IITM-Pune: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune — autonomous institute under Ministry of Earth Sciences
Timeline
- 2005Baseline year referenced in India's NDC targets for forest carbon sink.
- 2013Forest carbon stock at 6.94 billion tonnes per that cycle's State of Forest Report.
- 2021Forest and tree cover recorded at 24.62% of geographical area.
- 2023Forest carbon stock at 7.29 billion tonnes; forest and tree cover 25.17% per ISFR 2023.
- 2031-35NDC target: 3.5-4.0 billion tonnes CO₂-equivalent additional carbon sink through forest and tree cover (relative to 2005).
- 2100IITM-Pune projection horizon — vegetation carbon biomass 35-97% above current levels depending on emissions scenario.
- →IITM-Pune study: 35% low-emission, 97% high-emission scenario by 2100. Do numbers, do scenarios.
- →Forest carbon stock: 6.94 Bn T (2013) → 7.29 Bn T (2023). Almost 0.35 Bn T grew in 10 years.
- →Forest + tree cover: 24.62% (2021) → 25.17% (2023). India ka target '33% ideal' hai (National Forest Policy 1988).
- →NDC target: 3.5-4.0 Bn T extra carbon sink by 2035 from 2005 baseline. Paris Agreement ke under.
- →Bonn Challenge = 26 Mha restore commitment. GIM = 5+5 Mha (expand + improve).
- →Top growth zone: Rajasthan + Gujarat (shushk/ardh-shushk). Counterintuitive — dry zones mein sabse zyada badhav.
- →ISFR = India State of Forest Report. FSI Dehradun banata hai. Har 2 saal mein aati hai.
Exam Angles
A new IITM-Pune study projects India's vegetation carbon biomass will rise 35-97% by 2100; forest carbon stock is already at 7.29 Bn T (2023) and forest + tree cover at 25.17% per ISFR 2023; the NDC target is a 3.5-4.0 Bn T CO₂-equivalent carbon sink by 2035.
Q1. According to the India State of Forest Report 2023, total forest and tree cover as a percentage of India's geographical area is approximately:
- A.21.71%
- B.24.62%
- C.25.17%
- D.33.00%
tap to reveal answer
Answer: C. 25.17%
ISFR 2023 records forest and tree cover at 25.17% of geographical area, up from 24.62% in the 2021 assessment. The 33% target refers to the National Forest Policy 1988 aspiration, not current cover.
Q2. The IITM-Pune study projects the highest increase in vegetation carbon biomass by 2100 in:
- A.Western Himalayan forests
- B.North-East forest belt
- C.Arid and semi-arid margins (Rajasthan, Gujarat)
- D.Western Ghats
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Answer: C. Arid and semi-arid margins (Rajasthan, Gujarat)
The study projects over 60% increase in arid and semi-arid margins, specifically Rajasthan and Gujarat, driven by elevated CO₂ and rainfall variability.
Q3. The India State of Forest Report is published biennially by which body?
- A.Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education
- B.Forest Survey of India (FSI), Dehradun
- C.Wildlife Institute of India
- D.National Institute of Remote Sensing
tap to reveal answer
Answer: B. Forest Survey of India (FSI), Dehradun
The Forest Survey of India (FSI), Dehradun — under the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change — publishes the India State of Forest Report biennially.
Q4. India's updated NDC target for the forest and tree cover carbon sink by 2031-35 (above 2005 levels) is:
- A.1.5-2.0 billion tonnes CO₂-eq
- B.2.5-3.0 billion tonnes CO₂-eq
- C.3.5-4.0 billion tonnes CO₂-eq
- D.5.0-6.0 billion tonnes CO₂-eq
tap to reveal answer
Answer: C. 3.5-4.0 billion tonnes CO₂-eq
India's updated NDC targets an additional carbon sink of 3.5-4.0 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent through forest and tree cover by 2031-35, relative to 2005 levels.
Q5. Under the Bonn Challenge, India has committed to restore how much degraded land?
- A.5 million hectares
- B.13 million hectares
- C.26 million hectares
- D.50 million hectares
tap to reveal answer
Answer: C. 26 million hectares
India's Bonn Challenge commitment is to restore 26 million hectares of degraded land.
India's forest-carbon architecture operates across three levels: the international commitment (Paris Agreement NDC, targeting a 3.5-4.0 billion-tonne CO₂-equivalent additional carbon sink by 2035 from 2005 baseline), the domestic programmatic stack (Green India Mission under NAPCC, National Afforestation Programme, CAMPA, TOFI, Sub-Mission for Agroforestry, Green Credit Programme, Nagar Van Yojana), and the measurement backbone (biennial India State of Forest Report by Forest Survey of India, Dehradun). Forest carbon stock has grown from 6.94 Bn T (2013) to 7.29 Bn T (2023), and forest + tree cover has increased from 24.62% (2021) to 25.17% (2023). The IITM-Pune projection of 35-97% biomass growth by 2100, concentrated in arid and semi-arid zones, reshapes the ecological-planning conversation — areas traditionally treated as marginal for afforestation may become primary carbon-sequestration frontiers.
- Climate-scientificElevated atmospheric CO₂ plus rainfall variability drives biomass growth; the CO₂-fertilisation effect is more pronounced in water-stressed ecosystems, explaining the arid-zone concentration.
- PolicyNDC targets now have concrete biological support — IITM projections suggest the 2035 carbon-sink ambition is physically achievable under favourable policy support.
- Regional-equityShifting afforestation priority to arid margins redistributes investment and livelihoods toward historically marginal regions.
- RiskClimate extremes (droughts, heat waves) could undermine projections; rainfall variability is a double-edged driver.
- Scheme-convergenceGreen Credit Programme monetises ecosystem services; TOFI extends protection beyond classical forests; convergence across schemes is the policy lever.
- Monitoring and verification — distinguishing genuine biomass growth from carbon credit overestimation requires ground-truth plots at scale.
- Protecting existing forests while expanding new cover — net gain can mask gross loss.
- Integrating grasslands and wetlands into national climate accounting, which is currently forest-centric.
- Aligning state-level forest departments with Centre-led programmes across diverse ecological zones.
- Water availability as a constraint on arid-zone afforestation — scale ambition must respect hydrology.
- Strengthen ISFR methodology with LiDAR and satellite biomass measurements alongside ground plots.
- Prioritise native species in afforestation to build resilient carbon stocks rather than fast-growth monocultures.
- Mainstream grasslands and wetlands in the next NDC update — India's non-forest natural ecosystems are undercounted.
- Operationalise the Green Credit Programme with transparent crediting standards aligned with international voluntary carbon markets.
- Build community-led afforestation models tied to Nagar Van Yojana and TOFI for urban and agroforestry contexts.
Mains Q · 250wThe IITM-Pune projection that India's vegetation carbon biomass may rise 35-97% by 2100, led by arid-zone forests, reframes India's NDC strategy. Discuss the policy implications and suggest a coherent afforestation framework. (250 words)
Intro: The IITM-Pune study projects a 35-97% rise in vegetation carbon biomass by 2100, with over 60% of growth in arid and semi-arid margins — a scientific foundation for India's NDC target of an additional 3.5-4.0 Bn T CO₂-equivalent carbon sink by 2035.
- Baseline: forest carbon stock rose from 6.94 Bn T (2013) to 7.29 Bn T (2023); forest + tree cover at 25.17% per ISFR 2023.
- Policy stack: GIM, NAP, CAMPA, TOFI, Bonn Challenge (26 Mha), SMAF, GCP, Nagar Van Yojana — a convergence-heavy framework.
- Reframing: arid-zone primacy shifts investment toward historically marginal regions; CO₂-fertilisation effect is more pronounced in water-stressed systems.
- Risks: climate extremes; rainfall variability is double-edged; water constraints on scale.
- Framework: native-species prioritisation, LiDAR-based MRV, grassland and wetland integration in NDC accounting, transparent Green Credit standards, community-led models.
Conclusion: The projection converts NDC aspiration into biologically-grounded policy design. The challenge now is aligning measurement, regional investment, and scheme convergence so that the projected carbon gains translate into credible, verified sinks by 2035 and beyond.
Common Confusions
- Trap · Forest cover target percentages
Correct: India's current forest + tree cover is 25.17% (ISFR 2023); the 33% figure is the National Forest Policy 1988 aspiration, not a binding target or current number.
- Trap · 2005 baseline meaning
Correct: India's NDC sink target (3.5-4 Bn T) is measured above 2005 levels, not as absolute stock. 2005 is the baseline year for the CO₂-equivalent additional sink.
- Trap · Which body publishes ISFR
Correct: Forest Survey of India (FSI), Dehradun — not Wildlife Institute of India or ICFRE. FSI sits under MoEFCC.
Flashcard
Q · India's forest carbon stock and forest + tree cover per ISFR 2023?tap to reveal
Suggested Reading
- India State of Forest Report 2023search: fsi.nic.in India State of Forest Report 2023
- IITM-Pune climate researchsearch: tropmet.res.in vegetation carbon biomass India 2100
Interlinkages
Essay Fodder
The future depends on what you do today.
Prerequisites · concepts to brush up first
- Basic understanding of photosynthesis and carbon sequestration
- Paris Agreement and NDC framework
- National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) structure